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Pickings of niches become scarce
The New York Times
By Matt Richtel
Monday, March 13, 2006
NEW YORK Media companies are still hungry. Is there much
left for them to consume that they will find satisfying?
NBC Universal's $600 million acquisition of iVillage, an
early Internet company catering to women, highlights the continuing
interest by media companies in adding new Web sites to reach
and connect with consumers, hobbyists, parents, investors,
car buyers, Scrabble players and virtually every other niche
audience.
To that end, digital-era media companies like Yahoo and Google,
as well as traditional media companies, including those with
deep roots in television and print, continue to scour the
Internet for emerging content and technology companies. But
the pickings of obvious acquisition candidates, while hardly
exhausted, are slimming, according to financiers, entrepreneurs
and industry analysts who follow the sector.
That leaves the media companies trying to figure out - as
they did with far less discipline during the dot-com boom
- which of the emerging generation of Web sites have lasting
business models or, at least, can continue to build traffic.
"There was a point last year where we thought the midlevel
Internet deals were over," said Rafat Ali, editor of PaidContent.org,
a site that follows the business of digital media, referring
to acquisitions valued at several hundred million dollars.
But the iVillage deal last week "means that some of the midsize
properties are still in play."
Ali said that media companies would also like to acquire
smaller companies - up-and-coming content sites that might
cost tens of millions - but that there are few proven sites
left to buy. A lot of smaller "good sites have gone," he said.
Media companies "are looking at the new sites coming out of
Silicon Valley" to determine what to buy next.
Media companies appear to be focusing their acquisition interest
on sites that cater to niches but that have the potential
for broad appeal. High on their shopping list are community
networking Web sites like Myspace.com, which the News Corporation
bought last year for $580 million.
Also of interest are sites that allow people to play casual
interactive games; store, send, manipulate and print photos;
build and store blogs; and research and shop for big ticket
items, like cars. Also eliciting interest are "next generation"
Web sites, like those focused on allowing people to search
the universe of blogs more effectively.
The media companies' interest has to do with the continuing
shift in the ways people consume entertainment and shop. Just
as the advent of cable television carved up a once-concentrated
block of network TV viewers, so has the Internet - with its
literally millions of Web sites - created highly fragmented
niche audiences.
For big companies, the key is to build or buy Web sites that
attract those niche audiences, but in substantial numbers.
For a Web site to at least pique interest of mass-market advertisers,
it needs to have at least a million unique visitors a month;
to be considered a major takeover candidate, it needs to have
five million unique visitors, said Sharon Wienbar, a managing
director with BA Venture Partners, a Silicon Valley venture
firm that invests in Internet content companies.
In the case of iVillage, the company had 13.4 million unique
visitors from the United States in February 2006, though that
was down from 16.6 million in the same period a year ago,
according to comScore Media Metrix, which measures Web traffic.
When the media companies guess right, the payoff has been
growing, said Mark Pincus, chairman of Tribe.net, a social
networking site. Mr. Pincus said the price that advertisers
are paying to reach large, specific audiences has been increasing,
and looks as if it will continue to do so.
Pincus noted that to reach a narrowly defined audience, the
cost for having an advertisement seen 1,000 times, an advertising
industry standard measure, is $20 to $50. An example, he said,
would be visitors to a major portal's finance page.
He said that to reach broader audiences with specific interests
- like the people who visit a job search site - ads command
$4 to $10 per thousand impressions, a "huge jump" from $1
or $2 just two years ago.
To reach general audiences, like the masses who use Myspace.com
on a regular basis, he said the price has jumped to $1 or
$2 per thousand impressions, from pennies.
Pincus's site, Tribe.net, has been among the privately held
social networking properties sometimes mentioned as acquisition
candidates. Others in the category that are eliciting interest
include xanga.com, a community of online diaries that had
7.2 million visitors in February, comScore said, as well as
facebook.com and hi5.com. In December, 2005, Yahoo bought
Del.icio.us, a company that makes software for bloggers and
writers of online diaries, but did not disclose terms of the
deal.
Perhaps the site most discussed and analyzed as a potential
major takeover is Cnet, the operator of news.com, a site focusing
on business and technology news. The price tag for Cnet, which
is publicly traded, with a market value of almost $2 billion,
would be $2.5 billion to $3 billion, said Mark May, an analyst
for Needham & Co. who covers Internet services and digital
media.
Cnet is "too expensive" to be a ready takeover candidate,
May said.
Other analysts said Cnet had caused a lot of debate among
major media companies, which were unable to determine whether
how lucrative the Cnet audience could become.
And compared with valuing a public company like Cnet, putting
a value on a privately held Internet company is even less
of a science. While bigger companies are priced on a multiple
of their revenue - based on comparable companies - smaller
companies are based simply on what the market will bear, said
Wienbar of BA Venture Partners.
May said public companies that might attract interest from
major media companies included WebMD, a health information
site with a market capitalization of nearly $2.2 billion;
Bankrate.com, a financial news and information site whose
stock is worth around $585 million; and Hollywood Media, a
$157 million company that operates MovieTickets.com, a ticket-purchase
site.
Industry analysts said another midsize company that had generated
interest was PlanetOut.com, which has a market capitalization
of about $170 million. The site caters to gay and lesbian
interests. There is also TheKnot.com, a wedding site with
a market value of more than $350 million.
Ali of paidcontent.org said another potential takeover candidate
is Infospace, an Internet and mobile search company, whose
stock is worth $750 million.
Media companies might also show interest in privately held
casual gaming sites, like BigFishGames.com, iWin.com, atomshockwave.com
and oberongames.com, Wienbar said. The sites are interesting
to media companies, she said, because they "reach middle-aged
women." all these are privately held. Ali said another group
eliciting interest are companies that make games for mobile
phones, including Mforma, Glu Mobile, and Digital Chocolate.

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