|
Silicon Valley Start-Ups Awash in Dollars,
Again
New York Times
By Brad Stone and Matt Richtel
October 17, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO, Oct. 16 Silicon Valley's math is getting fuzzy
again. Internet companies with funny names, little revenue and
few customers are commanding high prices. And investors, having
seemingly forgotten the pain of the first dot-com bust, are displaying
symptoms of the disorder known as irrational exuberance.
Consider Facebook, the popular but financially unproven social
network, which is reportedly being valued by investors at up to
$15 billion. That is nearly half the value of Yahoo, a company
with 38 times the number of employees and, based on estimates of
Facebook's income, 32 times the revenue.
Google, which recently surged past $600 a share, is now worth
more than I.B.M., a company with eight times the revenue. More
broadly, Internet start-ups are drawing investment based on their
ability to build an audience, not bring in revenue the very alchemy
that many say led to the inflation and bursting of the dot-com
bubble.
The surge in the perceived value of some start-ups has even surprised
some entrepreneurs who are benefiting from it. A year ago, Yahoo
invested in Right Media, a New York-based company developing an
online advertising network. Yahoo's investment valued the firm
at $200 million. Six months later, when Yahoo acquired Right Media
outright, the purchase price had swelled to $850 million.
What changed? According to Right Media's chief technology officer,
Brian O'Kelley, very little, except that Yahoo's rivals, Microsoft
and Google, were writing billion-dollar checks to buy online advertising
networks, and Yahoo thought it needed to pay any price to keep
up.
"I have to say I giggled," Mr. O'Kelley, 30, said of the deal
that earned him millions. He has since left Right Media and is
starting another company. "There is no way we quadrupled the value
of the company in six months."
The trend is described as a return to madness (by skeptics) or
as a rational approach to unlimited opportunities presented by
the Internet (by true believers). Greed, fear and a desperate rush
to pick the next big winner are all adding fuel to the fire that
is Silicon Valley's resurgence.
"There's definitely a lot of betting going on, and it's not rational," said
Tim O'Reilly, a technology conference promoter and book publisher.
Mr. O'Reilly is credited with coining the phrase "Web 2.0," which
refers to a new generation of Web sites that encourage users to
contribute material. His Web 2.0 conference, which begins Wednesday
in San Francisco, has become a nexus for the optimism around the
latest set of society-changing online tools. But that has not stopped
Mr. O'Reilly from worrying that the industry is minting too many
copycat companies, half-baked business plans and overpriced buyouts.
When the bubble inevitably pops, he said, "there are going to
be a lot of people out of work again."
Putting a value on start-ups has always been a mix of science and
speculation. But as in the first dot-com boom and the recent surge
in housing, seasoned financial professionals are seeming to indulge
in some strange instinct to turn away from the science and lean
instead on the speculation.
This time around, people indulging in that optimistic thinking
are not mom-and-pop investors or day traders but venture capitalists
whose coffers are overflowing with money from university endowments
and hedge funds. Many of those financial professionals say that
this time, everything is different.
More than 1.3 billion people around the world use the Internet,
many with speedy broadband connections and a willingness to immerse
themselves in digital culture. The flood of advertising dollars
to the Web has become an indomitable trend and a proven way for
these start-ups to make money, while the revenue models of the
dot-coms of yesteryear were often little more than sleight of hand.
"The environmental factors are much different than they were eight
years ago," said Roelof Botha, a partner at Sequoia Capital and
an early backer of YouTube. "The cost of doing business has declined
dramatically, and traditional media companies have also woken up
to the opportunities of the Web.
"That does open up the aperture for a different outcome this time," he
said. Some trace the start of the new bubble to eBay's $3.1 billion
acquisition of the Internet telephone start-up Skype in 2005. EBay's
chief executive, Meg Whitman, reportedly outbid Google for the
company. This month, eBay conceded it had grossly overpaid for
Skype by about $1.43 billion, and announced that Niklas Zennstrom,
a Skype co-founder, had left the company.
Google's acquisition of YouTube last year for $1.65 billion, under
similarly competitive bidding, might have accelerated the transition
to loftier values. Google executives and many analysts argued that
YouTube was well worth the price tag if it became the next entertainment
juggernaut.
It still might. More than 205 million people visit YouTube each
month, according to the research firm comScore. Still, Citigroup
estimated that YouTube would bring in $135 million in revenue next
year. At that rate, YouTube would have to grow considerably to
account for just 5 percent of Google's annual revenue of nearly
$12 billion.
"We are almost going back to year 2000 types of errors," said
Aaron Kessler, an Internet analyst at Piper Jaffray. Internet companies "are
buying users instead of revenue and profitability," he said.
The Skype and YouTube windfalls helped to give the newest batch
of Internet entrepreneurs dreams of improbable wealth. They also
brought back practices that had seemingly been discredited during
the first boom. For example, in the first dot-com gold rush, Internet
companies did not have to make money to acquire serious investments
dollars. Now that once again is true.
Twitter, a company in San Francisco that lets users alert friends
to what they are doing at any given moment over their mobile phones,
recently raised an undisclosed amount of financing. Its co-founder
and creative director, Biz Stone, says that the company was not
currently focused on making money and that no one in the company
was even working on how to do so.
"At the moment, we're focused on growing our network and our user
experience," he said. "When you have a lot of traffic, there's
always a clear business model."
That is not necessarily illogical in the current climate. A European
competitor, Jaiku, which is similarly devoid of a mature business
model, was acquired last week by Google for an undisclosed sum.
With the competitive logic that prevails at the major Internet
companies, the deal might have further raised Twitter's appeal
to Google's rivals.
The high value placed on many start-ups and minimal requirements
for financial performance are raising expectations of other entrepreneurs.
Sharon Wienbar, managing director of Scale Ventures Partners, an
investment firm, cited the $100 million valuation that investors
gave to the Internet genealogy site Geni.com, founded last year
in Los Angeles by a veteran of PayPal.
"Now every entrepreneur thinks he should get that," Ms. Wienbar
said. "I have a feeling a lot of entrepreneurs are secretly meeting
for beers on the Peninsula, saying, Hey, look what I got.'"
Mr. O'Kelley, formerly of Right Media, said other entrepreneurs
had begun to think that the financing game is best played by avoiding
actual revenues since that only limits the imagination of investors. "It's
a screwed-up incentive structure, just like you had in the first
bubble," he said.
Another company benefiting from the exuberance is Ning, which
allows users to create their own MySpace-style ad-supported social
networks. It was recently valued by investors at more than $200
million, mainly because its main backer and founder, Marc Andreessen,
has a successful history with the Internet hits Netscape and Opsware.
Mr. Andreessen argues on his blog that there is no bubble and
that the high prices represent a rational desire to stake a claim
in the potentially huge markets of the future. But he acknowledges
that a seemingly inexhaustible flood of capital into Silicon Valley
is helping to power the boom. Venture capitalists are flush with
cash from institutional investors, eager for Internet-style returns
on their money.
"The upward valuations pressure is the result of decisions being
made by people wearing suits in cities like New York and Boston
who would never ever meet with start-ups," Mr. Andreessen said
in an interview. "If that ever goes away, it will have consequences.
But it doesn't look like they will change their minds."

|